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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd