🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still